Buy, Sell or Hold MSTR After Strategy’s First Bitcoin Sale in Years?

Omor Ibne EhsanThu, June 4, 2026 at 11:55 AM UTC

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MSTR dropped 31% in a month after Strategy broke its no-sell rule, offloading 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million to cover preferred dividends.

A 63% Polymarket probability of MSCI delisting by 2026 and a $17.44 billion unrealized loss make the bear case hard to dismiss.

Phong Le says Strategy remains a "net aggregator," but the June 8 shareholder vote will reveal whether the 32-coin sale is precedent or exception.

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Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the company formerly known as MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million last week to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022, and the stock has been plunging.

Strategy runs enterprise analytics software bolted onto the world's largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. Michael Saylor's playbook was to issue equity and exotic preferred credit instruments, convert proceeds into Bitcoin, and never sell. CEO Phong Le followed the same script, with the company raising $25.3 billion of capital in 2025 to push holdings to more than 843,000 Bitcoin.

MSTR is off 67% over the past year and 31% in the last month alone, with Bitcoin currently trading around $64,282, far below the company's $75,699 average cost per coin.

Why a microscopic sale moved MSTR stock so much

The sale represents just 0.0004% of total holdings. Strategy needed cash for preferred dividends, and the easy doors are closing. The preferred stock is trading below par, so tapping the preferred ATM gets expensive. Common stock issuance, with shares this far below their highs, would be highly dilutive. Selling a few coins was the cleanest option. Dividends first, accumulation second.

Not only that, the crypto hype is fading. BTC was supposed to keep going up and up like it did from 2023 to 2025, especially in an environment where emerging tech was climbing in the broader market. Unfortunately, this hasn't been the case.

The bear case for cutting losses

Strategy reported a Q4 2025 net loss driven by a $17.44 billion unrealized loss on digital assets, with full-year EPS of -$15.23. The stock has fallen from 72% from July 2025 till today. That's brutal underperformance against an S&P 500 that posted gains over the same window in the high single digits.

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Polymarket assigns a 63% probability of MSCI index delisting by year-end 2026, which would force passive selling. Reddit sentiment is running very bearish, with the top wallstreetbets thread asking whether more Bitcoin sales are coming. If the dividend math keeps tightening, that 32-coin sale becomes the first of many.

The case for sitting still

Both sides are right about something, which is when patience pays. The bulls are right that 32 coins is a rounding error and management has been explicit. Saylor and Phong Le said on the Q4 call they will sell Bitcoin "when it's advantageous to the company" while remaining "net aggregators". The bears are right that optics matter. A treasury that sells under pressure is different from one that only buys. The market is pricing in a real probability of more sales.

What you are waiting for is the next data point. A purchase announcement in the June 2 to June 8 window would confirm the sale was a one-off. Another sale, or commentary at the June 8 shareholder vote on semi-monthly preferred dividend timing, would confirm the strategic shift is real.

Why Hold is the honest call at $126

At $126, Strategy is a Hold. The 32-coin sale is too small to invalidate the Bitcoin treasury thesis, but too symbolic to ignore. Existing holders bought a leveraged Bitcoin proxy and still own one. New money buying today pays for a thesis that just developed a hairline crack. Waiting one or two weeks to see whether Strategy announces a fresh purchase costs less than buying right before a second, larger sale.

A meaningful Bitcoin purchase this week or next, paired with stable preferred prices, would confirm the treasury machine is still operating as designed. Another sale, weak demand at the next preferred ATM, or commentary suggesting dividend coverage is structurally tight would mean the precedent is the policy.

Track preferred prices relative to par, watch the cadence of Bitcoin purchase announcements, and read the June 8 shareholder vote carefully. The downside is no longer hypothetical and the upside requires Bitcoin to cooperate. When a stock can rally 175% or lose another third without anyone being surprised, the most useful move is usually no move.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and MicroStrategy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

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Source: “AOL Money”